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Applied Geology and Geochemistry

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Uncertainty Analytics: Prediction and the Management of Doubt (A Video Presentation)

PNNL scientists and analysts work diligently toward eroding uncertainties about our natural, societal and technological environments. Nevertheless, some decisions wll not wait, and so we need to convey today's uncertainties in a scrutable and systematic way. In this time of unprecedented creativity at PNNL in the development and application of prediction methods, the robust treatment of uncertainty is key. In this video presentation, PNNL scientist Steve Unwin gives a historic perspective on the emergence of uncertainty analysis methods—some borrowed from the fundamental sciences, some from the theory of financial markets and others created boldly to replace traditional notions of probability, uncertainty and belief.

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Risk and Decision Sciences

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