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Applied Geology and Geochemistry

Research Areas

A Practical Look at Uncertainty Modeling (A Video Presentation)

The R&D agenda for visual analytics includes several recommendations addressing the need for methods to represent, measure, aggregate and communicate uncertainties. Risk and uncertainty modeling will also be a key aspect of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Motivation & Intent project. This emphasis properly reflects the wisdom that understanding the uncertainties is a prerequisite to a defensible decision. With a focus on the prospective relevance to visual analytics and other aspects of intelligence analysis, Dr. Steve Unwin shares some practical insights from a career in the development and application of uncertainty analysis methods.

View the video presentation

Topics include:

  • The nature of uncertainty
  • How classical statistics fall short
  • The probabilistic way—Bayesianism
  • The problem with Bayesianism
  • More intuitive, non-probabilistic, theories of evidence: Shafer's Theory, Possibility Theory, Fuzzy Logic
  • Measuring uncertainty—entropy and information theory applications
  • Prospective value to visual analytics and other areas of intelligence analysis

Risk and Decision Sciences

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